A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
