Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
